Bitcoin (BTC) has once again declined to a four digit price contrary to overly bullish expectations. A lot of traders almost bought the idea that this may never happen again but then the price kept on revisiting the 50 day EMA and the bullish resolve kept getting weaker till the price eventually declined below this level. So, what does this mean? It means that if BTC/USD ends up closing below the 50 Day EMA for the second time within the past two weeks, chances are it is going to go down a lot harder. Market makers have done a good job of keeping the bulls overly optimistic as they keep on expecting a rocket to the moon on Baakt future launch or Coinbase getting millions of new users. Certainly, these are bullish developments for the market long term but they have nothing to do with the price short term.
If anything, most of these events like Baakt futures launch are already priced in which is why they are likely to result in a price decline close to the event because investors generally buy the rumor and sell the news. This is one of the reasons why the market has had such a strong reaction to Justin Sun’s lunch postponement with Warren Buffet. People are eager to always find reasons as to why something has happened. I personally do not believe in that. I think the price is the best guide of what is likely to happen next. Usually when something is supposed to happen, we see market events that accelerate that kind of move. For instance, if BTC/USD is primed for a decline, we could see some regulatory crackdowns, arrests or hacks that could cause the price to decline quickly. Events like these happen in the past and they had their desired effect.